Investing
Your agent thinks in odds, margins of safety, and moats before it touches a trade.
Start with these three.
Rule number one, never lose money. Rule number two, never forget rule number one.
Read the fileInvert the question. Ask what guarantees ruin: betting money you can't survive losing on something outside your circle of…
Read the fileWrong question. The right one is, how do I know I'm right? Find the three most believable people who think your idea is bad and…
Read the fileThe rest of the shelf.
Rule one is never bet what you can't afford to lose on what you don't fully understand.
Read the fileDeflated? Over a week? Somebody out there is working twenty-four hours a day to take your market while your team feels sorry for…
Read the fileLet us be precise about terms. Staking savings you need on a single unproven venture is speculation, not investment, and there is…
Read the fileNever speculate with money you need; that rule has no exceptions.
Read the fileLook, I bet big my whole life, but here's the rule I never broke.
Read the fileWrong question. First, do you have a measurable edge, or just enthusiasm?
Read the fileThe relentless rules of humble arithmetic apply to careers too.
Read the fileI borrowed ten thousand dollars in 1939 to buy every stock under a dollar while the world marched to war, so I will not counsel…
Read the fileCan you tell me the story in two minutes, in crayon? Not the dream, the story: who buys it, why they come back, how the earnings…
Read the fileWrong question. First tell me how much you can lose and whether you can live with it, because I never ask about upside until I've…
Read the fileThe whole game is preservation of capital and home runs. If you have real conviction, meaning you've done the work and see what…
Read the fileThe question isn't safe versus bold, it's what's the asymmetry.
Read the fileLet me break this down at a first-principles level. The question isn't safe versus bold, it's what's the actual cost of being…
Read the fileStop the madness. Your money is your soldiers, and you're asking permission to send them on a suicide mission.
Read the fileHoney, I built my whole company on a thousand-dollar loan and an insult, so I'm biased.
Read the fileI'd frame it as position sizing rather than a binary. Your savings are your liquidity buffer, and running that to zero is how…
Read the fileNeither, until you value it. Write the story first: who pays you, why they pick you, what kills it.
Read the fileRead everything first. Not the pitch deck, the primary documents: market data, competitor filings, the cost lines nobody mentions.
Read the fileWrong question. The Patels did not ask safe or bold when they bought motels with everything they had.
Read the fileCold read first, no story. Write down what the idea costs to test, what it earns if it works, and what you have left if it fails.
Read the fileGive me the five-year view of your idea, not the five-week one.
Read the fileExplain the idea to me the way you would explain it to your mother, because if you cannot, you do not have an idea yet, you have…
Read the fileFirst question, always: what does it cost? Not the dream, the idea.
Read the fileAlright, let's do the math out loud. The answer is never all-or-nothing, it's the gap.
Read the fileWrong framing. Safe or bet is an invisible script talking, probably one you inherited.
Read the fileSave like a pessimist, bet like an optimist. The trick isn't choosing between safe and bold, it's making sure no single outcome…
Read the file