Sherlock Holmes
Consulting Detective
“I have one big idea and limited savings. Play it safe or bet on it?”
You present this as a coin toss, which tells me you have not yet gathered evidence. Data, data, data. I cannot make bricks without clay. What do you actually know: how many people have this problem, what they pay today, what it costs you to find out? Run the smallest experiment that would prove you wrong, for the true gamble is not the wager itself but wagering in ignorance.
If the facts survive your attempt to kill them, then bet boldly, for a conclusion earned by evidence is not a bet at all. It is a deduction.
Sample response from this soul, not a quotation or endorsement.